Cherrypicks: 2015

December 23, 2015

NSE NIFTY update: 23 DEC 2015

This use to be one of the most viewed items of my blog. I have kept this updated for long and can't promise if I will be regular in updating this. Never the less, we have an update today.

Support: 7725, 7540

Resistance: 7935, 8164

Honestly, I don't expect any kind of breakout in coming weeks forget about days.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report. Any information discussed on the blog is for information purpose only. People are themselves responsible for any profit/loss arising on trading on such information.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I have the stock in my portfolio/trading position and hence my point of view will be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Warning: Stock trading is high risk activity and can lead to loss of up to 100% of invested capital.

Arvind Ltd: Update 23 DEC 2015

Arvind Ltd is able to break the resistance line above Rs 322. This was a problem for long time for the stock.

If the stock is able to sustain the current trend, it can lead to gains of 10-15% in short duration of time.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report. Any information discussed on the blog is for information purpose only. People are themselves responsible for any profit/loss arising on trading on such information.

Warning: Stock trading is high risk activity and can lead to loss of up to 100% of invested capital.

DCW Update 23 DEC 2015

DCW is a company in Chemical sector. Recently, the company issued shares to promoters of preferential basis @ 23 per share including the premium of Rs 21 on Rs 2 face value share. Yesterday, the stock formed the 52 week high of Rs 26.2

Technically, the stock has a huge resistance between Rs 25 and Rs 26.7. If the current trend is able to break than we can easily expected gains of 20-30%.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report. Any information discussed on the blog is for information purpose only. People are themselves responsible for any profit/loss arising on trading on such information.

Warning: Stock trading is high risk activity and can lead to loss of up to 100% of invested capital.

Caplin Point: Result forecasting Qtr ending 31 Dec 2015 and 31 Mar 2015: Dated 23 Dec 2015

Expected sales on next two quarters is Rs 86cr (31st Dec 2015) and Rs 90cr (31st Mar 2015), respectively. With expected sales growth of 41.83% and 41.4% for next two quarters vis a vis growth of 35.5% (Sep 15) and 46% (June 15)

Net profits of around Rs15 cr and Rs 16 crs for next two quarters. Expecting a margin of 17.55% and 17.77% for the respective quarters compared to the net profit margin of 18.16% (Sep 15) and 18.13% (June 15). Leading to eps of Rs 10 and Rs 10.5, respectively.

Basis of assumption:
The expected sales and profits are projected taking in to account weighted average growth of last 4 quarters.
Significant impact on profits can be seen if the company is able to improve its margins.

Red flags:
Hoping that recent floods had no impact on either production, sales and profits of the company. The disclosures of small companies are generally very bad and will not be known till the final results are announced.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report. Any information discussed on the blog is for information purpose only. People are themselves responsible for any profit/loss arising on trading on such information.

Warning: Stock trading is high risk activity and can lead to loss of up to 100% of invested capital.

December 02, 2015

TATA Chem 02-12-2015 Too early to predict a breakout?

TATA Chemicals have a multi-year high trend line of 438.5rs, this level was broken last year and stock formed a multi year high of 526rs but could not hold the level and retraced to 364rs. Only to recover quickly and now again the stock is trying to re-test its previous multi-year high level.

Can it break the level, if yes can it test the all time high of Rs 526 and surpass that. Only time will tell all the answers. I am positive on stock and have some investment position.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report. Any information discussed on the blog is for information purpose only. People are themselves responsible for any profit/loss arising on trading in the stock market.

Warning: Stock trading is high risk activity and can lead to loss of up to 100% of invested capital.

BPCL BO on Weekly and daily charts 02-12-2015

BPCL has given BO on both Daily and Weekly Charts, represented by Blue and Yellow lines respectively.

I expect the stock to test the previous highs.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Warning: Stock trading is high risk activity and can lead to loss of up to 100% of invested capital.

November 25, 2015

Caplin Point- Technical Update

Caplin point chart update:

It appears to be the BO for Caplin point and may try to test its previous high of 1600++

If in any doubt can wait for today's closing for confirmation.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

November 23, 2015

Caplin Point: Some questions for the management

Recently, I have sent a mail to Caplin Point Investor mail id investor@caplinpoint.net

Seeking information on following points and awaiting a reply.

1. The company is a govt approved star export house and all income of the company are derived through exports. In light of the above information, how the tax on the income is getting calculated , as per my limited information the your's 100% EOU thus ideally their should not be any taxes on the company accounts.

So, the taxes paid by the company on income is MAT or some thing else, please part with the information.

2. In April the Company signed agreements for ANDA with two firms and confirmed that the company has also received the first milestone payment from both the counter parties.

However, I could not find any information on financial aspect of any of the deals either in the results sections for both 30th June 2015 and 30th September 2015 nor in the Annual report for FY 2014-15.

Can you please share more information on the subject?

3. Does the company has any growth projection for next 3-5 years wrt Revenues and Profits?

Not part of mail:

MAT is 18.5% of the total income even for 100% EOU's. How come, the company is paying more taxes?

Source: http://www.indiafilings.com/learn/what-is-minimum-alternate-tax-mat/

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have the stock in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

DCB Bank - Management Update on 30th October 2015

DCB Bank update:

Plan of action:

1. Doubling balance sheet size in next 36 months from the base of ~Rs16000 crores

2. Adding 150 branches over next 24 months instead of 12 months planned earlier.

3. Cost to income ration not to rise above 66.3%

Targets:

1. ROE of 14%+ by FY19

2. Cost/Income ratio of ~55% by FY19

Source:

Company announcement: http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=fbc1253e-c95e-44bc-8bdc-da25600731a8

Investor presentation: http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/48BC7F77_B937_4DFB_AEF1_F1B8740DCDB4_170112.pdf

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have the stock in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

November 06, 2015

Result update: NGL Fine Chem Sep15

Result update for NGL Fine Chem for Sep 15

Highlights:

YoY:
Revenue down 1% (YoY)
Operating profit (PBDT) up 26% (YoY)
Net profit/EPS up 12% (YoY)

QoQ
Revenue down 7% (QoQ)
Operating profit (PBDT) up 5% (QoQ)
Net profit/EPS up 8% (QoQ)

Change in shareholding pattern:

YoY: Promoters holding up 5% from 62.86% to 66.09%
QoQ: Promoters holding up 2% from 64.55% to 66.09%

Last 12 months eps is Rs 15.68 and current market price of Rs240 leading to PE of 15.3

Company is working in niche area of animal pharma. The stock is up almost 5 times in last 1 year. I am long past a decade now.

All in all its looks a good long term bet for me.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EsA4D0Gr4ythn_V5J0WeKx4SktXnF5tWN26nChTaI1s/edit?usp=sharing

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have the stock in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Caplin Point Result Update Sep 15

Result update for Caplin Point for Sep 15

Highlights:

YoY:
Revenue up 38.8% (YoY)
Operating profit (PBDT) up 80.29% (YoY)
Net profit/EPS up 66.67% (YoY)

QoQ
Revenue up 11.74% (QoQ)
Operating profit (PBDT) up 10.76% (QoQ)
Net profit/EPS up 11.9% (QoQ)

Change in shareholding pattern:

YoY: Over all Institutions holding up 3900% from 0.08% of the equity to 3.2% of the equity. In this FII's have increased the stake from NIL last year to 3.11% of the equity this year.

QoQ: Over all Institutions holding up 76% from 1.82% of the equity to 3.2% of the equity. In this FII's have increased the stake by 76% from 1.7% last qtr to 3.11% of the equity in this qtr.

The company is consistently beating its guidance of 25% of top line and bottom line growth.

Last 12 months eps is Rs 30.84 and current market price of Rs1299 leading to PE of 42.12

In No way the stock can be considered cheap but given the historical PE ratio's of in excess of 60 found recently, the stock is trading at almost 50% discount. The results are yet to reflect the impact of diversification in to new Geographies and new products.

All in all its looks a good long term bet for me.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qRAbQILXnzHwORHlv87Xq6yLNqPz-yw2lDvx2_RZpMU/edit?usp=sharing

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have the stock in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.