Caplin Point: Follow up

Investment update:

Results of the company are really good.. profit up more than 400% yoy but almost flat on qoq basis.

Current price of Rs 440+ looks on higher side for the stock for new investments.. If you holding the stock continue to hold it.. We might see un-imaginable levels in the stock..

Happy investing,
Atul

Disclaimer: I am holding shares of the company

Real Nifty returns over last 5 years and 10 years

One of my friend is a non believer of investments in equities. I asked him the reason, his reason:

In a portfolio of 10 stocks:

--2 move;

-- 4 go dead;

-- another 4 wont move.

So, net net no earning for a considerable period of time if any at all from the total investment.

I advised him to invest in Goldman Sachs Nifty Exchange Traded Scheme, this scheme replicates the NIFTY and has given annualised return of 9% since 2008(yes including crazy valuations of Jan 2008) and 11% since Jan 2004.

Assumptions:

1. Monthly investment of fix amount (same every month) in the NIFTY

2. Investments are made on 5th of every month or the nearest day, 5th being a holiday.

If anyone interested in the calculations, I will be more than happy to provide it.. do inbox me.

NSE NIFTY: Chart Update - 13 Feb 14

First disclaimer is all these lines are not prepared by me yesterday... they are here for some time now.. as per the trend line and Nifty trend it never closed below the levels of 5972.5 but yes it is giving respect to the resistance around 6100 levels which it tested on 12 Feb and another 7 trading days before... Lower levels needs to be decisively breached by closing below this level for 3 days in a row to confirm the trend (unfortunately it will be too late if the markets have to fall to take advantage of the position).

Indusind Bank: Chart update - 13 Feb 14

The above chart is monthly chart of Indusind bank. Look at the period between 2009 till yesterday, in this period the stock was almost flat for a period of one and a half year between 2010 to 2012 first quarter other than that it never breached the secular trend line. This trend line was broken in August this year, but that is only for a day as shown in daily chart below.

Again the stock bounced back to higher levels. Now, the time is back again and the stock is taking support at the trend line.

Will be interesting to see if it is able to hold the trend line and move higher or this is the end of stock rally for this one.. in later case be ready for very low levels may be 300 to start with and 225 later..btw my financial analysis on stock says it is better than HDFC Bank (comparison done last time in a different post)

Disclosures: I don't hold any open position in either stocks (investment or trading)

Caplin Point: Result update Q2 2013-14

Results taken from BSE India.com

Result highlights:
1. Revenue increased by 39% yoy and 27% qoq
2. Net profit more than doubled to 8cr leading to eps of more than Rs 5 per share the qtr making it almost 8 rs for the six months period this was 9.5rs for full last year..
3. Cost of material consumed has reduced from 8.16cr to 5.41cr. I am not sure how this is possible unless they are more in trading now rather than actually producing goods. This is validated by increase in purchase of stock in trade from 13.1cr to 18.7cr
4. Employee benefit expenses have increased almost 80% yoy. This might be due to new plants starting production.

My take on the results:
On face value things look awesome and going by Indian standards of disclosures and working of management nothing to worry about, infact it is time to sit back and enjoy the benefits of investment made in the stock.

Disclaimer: I own 1250 shares (previously 1500) sold 250 shares recently to recover my entire cost of investment plus took some profits off the table

NSE NIFTY: 05 FEB 14 Update

The NSE NIFTY took support at closing price of 5972 and did not close below it. Now can the NIFTY move up or else it will retest the support levels.

Interesting to see. Happy investing :)

DCB Bank Ltd: Techincally hit

As stated in the previous post, the stock was looking good to take support at 50 level... Eureka stock did took support at those levels.. now once again it is aiming to test the previous high (oops am I expecting this too early or should I wait for one more closing)

Let see what time has in store for us.

Happy investing :)

Gujarat Alkaline and Chemicals Ltd: Followup

As expected the results did not justify the price movement. We all saw that market is trying to be stable to positive in last two days but this stock in particular is on a falling spree. you cannot see the daily falls as this is a weekly chart. The point over here is invest based on logic not by just following some one blindly.

Happy investing :)

NIFTY Update: 30 Jan 14

Hope people are having good roller coaster ride in NIFTY. After the market failed to close above the red line on the top for 3 days its started its downward journey (yes a sharp one)... why did I book losses in the call I sold for 6200 bu hu hu hu keeping my unsuccessful trade aside... in last 5 days the NIFTY is not able to hold any support line.

Will it test the resistance or seek support below 6000 interesting to see.

Happy investing

Disclaimer: I don't hold any open position in NIFTY 

Gujarat Alkaline Ltd: Result Update Q3 2013-14

* Results from BSEIndia.com

Revenues of the company have increased a good 21.54% but the increase in cost of power and fuel ensured that the rise in profits are not in line with the increase in sales. 

Readers will say cut the crap and tell me if I can buy at current levels or not ..

My answer to this question is: The recent price movement is not justified by the kind of results company has produced all its peers namely AB Chemicals, DCW etc are trading at 10-20% above the yearly lows where in this one is trading 10-12% below yearly highs. Having said that its good to stay with the leaders of the sector.

Money is yours so final decision rest with you.

Technically as well the stock is too far from my comfort level to invest in.

Happy investing

Disclaimer: Currently, I dont hold any shares in the company.. I sold my holding of 200 shares in July 2013

YES BANK LTD 27 JAN 14

Is this one heading back to touch previous lows of 225 or will take support at 290 levels..

Happy investing

NSE NIFTY 27 JAN 2014

Market could not sustain the life time highs but does it mean its the end of the bull market? Not exactly

Will be interesting to see the movement of NIFTY for next couple of days.. brace yourself for the very volatile period ahead.

Happy investing

REC LTD

Charts were weak from 200 levels..

Now will be interesting to see if it can take support at 160 levels or test 140 ones

Happy investing

DCB Bank Follow up

As feared it could not hold support at the trend line..

Can this take support at 50 or 45 coming?

Happy investing

Disclaimer: Holding some shares at different rates

HDFC Bank: Saga of 30% plus growth is over and Indusind Bank is the new hero

Are the glory days over?

HDFC Bank presented the results few days ago with impressive growth of 25% (YoY) but this was second successive miss of 30%+ growth it was able to achieve for last 13 years in a row till the trend was broken in FY 2013-14 Q2 and Q3.

Interesting comparisons:

 

**Comparison charts are from Moneycontrol.com

If I compare this directly with Ramesh Sobti's headed Indusind bank. The valuation of later looks more interesting for the following reasons:

1. Ramesh Sobti has proven track record of growth and profitability (Company is growing @ 30%+ for last many years)

2. Indusind Bank being of smaller size will face less hurdles to sustain 30% kind of growth going ahead.

3. Since 2008 Indusind bank has given more than 1700% return compared to ~250% return by HDFC bank in the same duration

4. Even at current valuation Indusind is trading at lower valuation than HDFC Bank.

Should Indusind Bank replace HDFC Bank in your portfolio ?

Happy Investing

Disclaimer: I have no positions in either Indusind Bank or HDFC Bank

DCB Bank Ltd

The stock gave a sell signal when it was not able to sustain above 60.. but still traded above the trend line for couple of days..

Will this move against the trend of banks in general and dip south or will it test the 60's again..

Interesting to see.

Happy investing

Disclaimer: I hold some investment position in the stock @ various prices

NSE update 16-Jan-14

NSE NIFTY Weekly charts suggest we are nearing long term trend line.

Can we break it this time decisively? Will depend heavily on the market reaction on results of TCS (will it lead to profit booking as every time?) and Reliance: results are due today.

Most of the stocks are having very negative charts, other than the IT counters.

Will be interesting to see for how long nifty will keep on testing higher levels with support from just one sector ie IT

Happy investing

Disclaimer: I don't have any open position in NIFTY Futures or Options

DCB Slow and steady

Daily chart

Weekly chart

As posted earlier, the stock is trading above the long term trend line supported by some excellent results. Will it be able to cross 60 and than 65? Will be very interesting to know :)

Happy investing

Disclaimer: I hold investment position in DCB Bank

REC LTD

Technically the stock looks quite weak and very likely to touch 185-180 levels in coming days. On the other hand markets are having a flash run, can these two run in opposite directions, will be interesting to see.

Old Post: Click Here

Disclaimer: No open position in the stock.

Buying Unlisted stocks Elcid Investments, Ratnakar Bank and Bharti Telecom

Name of Security                                  Offer price

Elcid Investments                                     5100Rs
Ratnakar Bank                                         100Rs
Bharti Telecom                                        2500Rs

SELLING shares to us in Demat :

• Mutual preliminary decision of Quantity and Price of the shares over the phone or through email.
• We will send an Offer note to you through email and you reply with a Confirmation note mentioning your Name, Address, PanNo. and complete Bank details.
• You will transfer shares into my Demat A/c.
• On receipt of shares , payment will be made within 24 hours by RTGS/NEFT.

Demat Details : This will be shared over the email

WE DON'T BUY PHYSICAL SHARES

For any further information about the procedure :

Contact :
Atul Agarwal
Mobile : +91 9986443412
Email id : atulastra@gmail.com

REC Limited

The stock is current taking support at monthly trend line as highlighted in red above.

Daily charts are showing encouraging signs but at the long term support level

Will it bounce back for the tgts of 230 or will it test 180 levels... interesting to see

Happy investing

Disclaimer: Personally don't have any open position in RECLTD

DCB interesting stock

I will post three charts of DCB for 3 days, tell me your opinion on the way going forward:

Chart of 2nd Jan 2014

3rd Jan 14 stock took support at long term trend line in red and 6th Jan 14 it continued to trade above the weekly trend line.

7th Jan 14 took support @ weekly trend line and continue to trade above it.

Will it continue to take support @ weekly trend line or test the monthly trend line again..

This will be interesting to watch..

Happy investing :)

Disclaimer: I own shares in the company and continue to hold them as of date

Caplin Point Update

Caplin Point almost reached the tgts of Rs 125

Book 50% of your holding and hold rest for the next to come.

Happy investing :)

Older post: Click Here

NIFTY 02-Jan-2014

NIFTY is trading in a range... which side will it break up or down .. remember to share your views

Happy investing :)

Disclaimer: I personally (along with immediate family members) don't have any open position in NIFTY Futures or Options

NTPC

Interesting chart of NTPC, its a very good stock to trade in F&O segment for a margin of a rupee or two on a daily basis with a decent support @ 134.9

Happy investing :)

Disclaimer: I personally (along with immediate family members) dont have any open positions in the stock